The epic and unprecedented pandemic-related drop in the US stock market has been punishing. And the punishment has had no prejudice.
Indiscriminate selling led to even the highest-quality stocks dropping swiftly and significantly.
Indeed, my own FIRE Fund, comprised largely of blue-chip stocks, saw almost $100,000 in market value wiped out between early March and early April.
Now, I didn’t actually “lose” any money. I haven’t sold stocks. So it’s nothing more than a fluctuation that makes certain numbers appear smaller than they appeared before.
Still, it’s a pretty massive haircut in the collective market value of my investments.
What’s interesting about it is, that near-six-figure drop represents years of capital gain that’s been slowly building. Years of capital gain wiped out in a matter of weeks.
Stocks tend to use the escalator when they go up. But they sure like to use the elevator when they go down.
What effectively happened here is that I was forced to give a “refund” of that capital gain on my investments.
I had the capital gain – capital gain that took years to store up. Then it was quickly clawed back from me.
This is a perfect example of why I don’t rely on capital gain and selling stock to pay my bills.
Instead, I rely on the growing five-figure dividend income the Fire Fund generates on my behalf.
While the market value of the Fund saw almost $100,000 disappear in short order, the dividend income the Fund generates fluctuated by less than 2% over the same time period. And with a COVID-19 lockdown in place, my personal spending has gone down disproportionately. That’s led to an even better free cash flow situation than I had before.
Furthermore, that capital gain “refund” that I was forced to give was not asked of me when it came to my dividend income.
To give you perspective on this, I recently recounted how my lifetime dividend income tallied up to over $70,000.
That’s more than $70,000 in passive dividend income I didn’t work for.
Not only that, this income is exponentially growing to the point where it took less than half the time to more than double the dividend income.
It took me seven years to get to $35,000 in lifetime dividend income. Seven years of blood, sweat, tears, hardcore savings, and diligent investing.
It then took less than three more years to get to $70,000 in lifetime dividend income. Three years of sitting back, relaxing, and engaging in pursuits I’m passionate about.
Those three years of enjoying my life have been possible because I achieved financial freedom at a young age by taking advantage of dividend growth investing. This is something possible for just about anyone out there, which I thoroughly detail in my two best-selling books: The Dividend Mantra Way and 5 Steps To Retire In 5 Years.
Collecting $70,000 in “free money” is pretty cool.
But what’s even cooler?
I’ll tell you.
That money is mine to keep. Forever.
Capital gain, on the other hand, isn’t mine to keep.
(Not unless I become a trader, lock in gains (and losses!), try to time the market, and start buying and selling stock regularly. Said another way, not unless I want to start quickly going broke.)
There’s no refund on dividend income.
That $70,000+ I’ve collected over the last 10 years is mine to keep forever. Nobody is trying to claw back that money. And seeing as how I’ve been paying bills with that money over the last few years, that’s a good thing. Otherwise, I’d be in trouble.
It’s not like Coca-Cola Co. (KO) is calling me up and asking me to pay them back for all of the dividends they’ve sent me over the last 10 years.
But a good chunk of the capital gain that’s been building up over the last decade in my Coca-Cola stock got wiped out. That was essentially “refunded” without my permission. And that’s the risk you take when you’re a long-term investor.
This “no-refund policy” on dividends is a great aspect of being a dividend growth investor. You can keep yourself invested in the market for the long term without losing any sleep, because you know your dividend income stream will be fairly intact and paid dividends are always yours to keep.
If you’re someone who relies on selling investments to pay your bills, you’re almost certainly selling off investments for much less money today than you were even just two months ago. That means you have to sell many more shares than you did before just to keep your income relatively stable, accelerating and compounding your woes. Not a good situation to be in.
On the other hand, the blue-chip companies I’m invested in are still by and large paying their growing dividends. My dividend income has been minimally affected thus far. That said, I openly acknowledge that more temporary dividend suspensions and even cuts could be ahead.
However, even with a dividend cut – an act taken in order to make sure a business is liquid enough to be around for the recovery – I know for sure that I won’t be asked to refund back any prior dividend payments.
Full disclosure: I’m long KO.
What do you think? Does knowing there’s no refund on your dividends allow you to sleep better at night? Is it nice to know your dividend income is yours to keep forever?
Thanks for reading.
P.S. If you’d like to successfully invest in high-quality dividend growth stocks over the long term, check out some fantastic resources I personally used on my way to becoming financially free at only 33 years old!
I AGREE! Thanks Jason. How are you looking at post covid 19 and what the “new normal” would mean for your core dividend stocks? You and Ian helped start my own journey into DGI.
Lee,
Thanks for reading! 🙂
I think you have to be careful about not succumbing to recency bias. It’s easy to assume that whatever is happening today will be extrapolated out into the future indefinitely. But 99.9% of our reality is not dealing with a pandemic. The most likely outcome of all of this is that life slowly returns to normal, more or less.
Best regards.
I agree that things return to normal. Always has and always will. Life has to go on.
How are you doing with learning the language over there?
Pebbles,
I’ve never had a problem communicating over here, but I’ve picked up a decent Thai vocabulary over the last few years. 🙂
Cheers.
Hi Jason,
What about the dividend cut or elimination, I noticed several companies will be forced to cut or eliminate the dividend due to the recent Economics issues. for example Delta Airline and Boeing they have just made announcement of suspending the dividend.
I am expecting more dividend cut and elimination this year particularly from Energy, Transport and Hospitality and Retails industry.
Are you planning to sell your position following those cuts ?
Thanks for the article.
ATM,
I noted unfavorable dividend actions above, but my dividend income fluctuated by less than 2% month-over-month. Definitely different than the fluctuation in market value, which is what this is all about.
I don’t sell stocks, as I’ve discussed before.
Best wishes.
Thanks Jason for the reply.
Good point It is noted that dividend fluctuate less than the price of the stock market and that why it is (relatively) more stable source of income than selling shares.
Excellent article.
“I don’t sell stocks” You mean to more accurately and honestly state: “I don’t sell stocks anymore” You have sold stocks. INTC quickly comes to mind…There are likely others.
Transparency is best,
Yes. You’re absolutely correct about that. I do believe in transparency, and I’ve publicly noted every stock buy/sell since early 2011. That’s unlike someone who anonymously shows up on my blog with a “Transparency is best” username and no valid email. The hypocrisy is almost comical if it weren’t so sad.
I have sold stocks in the past. But I’ve not sold a single stock since I noted that I’d refrain from doing that moving forward:
https://www.mrfreeat33.com/why-i-will-never-sell-another-stock/
Feel free to move on to other sites/authors that you feel are more “transparent”, though. You won’t be missed. I will say, however, that more and more authors/sites are charging for the information/content I still put out for free.
Cheers.
I think this no sell policy is really the way to go. I have lost more money over the years because I failed to hang on for the big gains. Every time I guess, I guess wrong. I try now only to sell to harvest losses for tax purposes.
This Covid-19 business really makes me think about How we need to seize every opportunity for new experiences and to live life on our own terms. I am glad to see things are going well for you!
Roger,
Thanks for taking the time to read the article. Hope it gave you some food for thought. This policy is working out great for me. Never enjoyed investing more than I do now.
As for living life, that’s exactly it. I’ve always felt a sense of urgency, as if there’s this ticking clock in my ear at all times. It’s precisely why I chased after financial independence so hard. I needed to live life on my terms ASAP. 🙂
Best regards.
As you say, most blue chip companies, energy stocks notwithstanding are going to do their best to continue their dividends, especially those with a history of increasing them. Those that do cut or pause dividends, in my opinion should be assessed on an individual basis, to determine how this has affected the company & what it means for the future. The one issue I have, and I recognize it is not in your wheelhouse, but you enjoy talking investments, is what happens to bonds in a so called balanced portfolio. The rates are as low as they can go, and you will make nothing on bonds now, even less when you factor in taxes & inflation, and can only imagine what happens when interest rates have to rise at some point, and bonds drop further. If you have any thoughts on this, I’d be interested.
Brian,
Well, this is about as tough a test as it can get in regard to dividends, financial independence, and overall financial positioning/planning. So far, so good. I haven’t had any issues. But I think this might be a wake-up call to some folks out there living paycheck-to-paycheck. Should encourage more prudence in the future.
As for bonds, I’ve never had interest. I’d have even less interest (pun intended) now.
Best regards.
Every once in a while the market will give the gift of panic. I would like to take this time to thank Mr. Market for these opportunities.
Dividends and Me,
Agreed 100%. Recently initiated a position in Parker-Hannifin at around $125. That’s a gift I’m happy to receive. 🙂
Cheers.
Hi Jason, some might say having 127 companies as in your portfolio is too much diversification. Well, I believe your are in a much better positions than many of us. A 2% drop in your dividend is pretty decent in this type of market. I have 29 companies and even world class blue chips in most of them there always the chance for dividend cuts, freeze or even pause for a while. I’m about 3% down in dividend income but I can still sleep well at night even with close to 85K lost on paper on my portfolio value in the last 45 days. Markets will rebound eventually and we should be in good shape.
Great post and thanks for sharing with us. Take care my friend; Omar
Omar,
Yeah, it’s times like now when diversification really shines. I don’t think there’s such a thing as “too much” diversification. There’s only diworsification – when someone goes after more only for the sake of more, sacrificing quality in the process. Even though I own stakes in almost 130 businesses, I can think of at least 20 high-quality companies right off the top of my head that I’m not yet invested in. If the world only had 100 great businesses in it, we’d be in trouble.
Thanks for dropping by!
Best regards.
Hi Jason,
I think it is still early days to say “dividend income fluctuated by less than 2% month-over-month”. Of course, your diversification strategy will help to cushion any reductions in dividend income.
While it is true that companies can’t ask you to refund past dividends, companies which are in tight cash-flow situations may claw back some of those monies by rights issuance (if you do subscribe) or private placements which risk diluting existing shareholders.
Be prepared for a wild ride ahead. Stay safe and take care.
Respectfully, Lee
Lee,
Actually, it’s not still too early to say that. That’s a factual statement. The dividend income fluctuated by that much in a (roughly) 30-day period. However, as I noted in the article, I fully acknowledge that further dividend suspensions could be ahead.
Cheers.
Hi Jason,
no, I don´t think about what I lose or not, when I hold shares as an investor. I have no plans to sell, the only reason is that the business model does not work in the future. So even my companies which are in the hotel business, having shopping malls and so on are no candidates to sell. There is a live after Corona, this situation is temporary. I think, you have the same situation that several companies still increased the dividend. On the other hand I have some companies (not many) which suspended the dividend because of the lock down. Overall I expect some decrease in dividend income for 1 – 2 years, nothing more. But this is not dramatic, the gap will be compensated by some increases. On the other hand I also bought quite a lot of shares in March and this is the other part of the compensation to close the gap. I assume that the average dividend will be higher in 2020 comparing to 2019.
What the stocks are doing regarding the net worth is not important for me. The net worth is still in the green regarding my portfolio. But this has no importance, because I simple don´t plan to sell. It also could be that the net worth will decrease again if we will get a second wave from the Corona virus. But every virus will disappear one day. So whatever will happen, I will be the owner of my portfolio.
I also don´t think too much how many dividends I receicved in the past. This is simple money I got the last years. A part of the money I reinvested, other parts I simple spent on this and that.That´s all what happened. And this also will happen in the future. Nothing real exciting. If you are at the point that you don´t care too much about network of your portfolio, crisis like this don´t influence your live in any way. And besides that I have also some growth stocks with no dividend income and what can I say? Alphabet for example gained 9,2% today and Facebook was 6.6% higher. Ok, a bit away from the all time high, but I also don´t care about this too much. The growth don´t affect my every day live. What happen will happen and I´m convinced that in five years my portfolio is much stronger than today. If not, we all have major other problems and a portfolio is only my smallest problem. Simple as it is. There are more important things in live than a net worth of the fund.
Best regards
Oliver
Oliver,
Definitely on the same page. I don’t ever consider net worth. It’s just not a concept that means anything to me, so the fluctuation of it has no impact on my life. I simply live a lifestyle I really enjoy, and that lifestyle is possible without any active effort on my part. The rest is gravy. 🙂
Best wishes.
Dividends will be down 20-30% and then slowly rebound. Hard to say how an individuals portfolio will be affected. Many companies have suspended dividends. Be sure to keep us posted on the suspends and reductions. Weather the storm.
Wade,
We’ll see how it goes. So far, so good. I’m actually looking at a better financial situation than before, largely because I’m kind of “forced” into spending much less. My personal spending is coming in at under $1,000 this month, which is by far the lowest since I came to Chiang Mai. I probably would have ordinarily spent $300 more. Plus, the dollar is very strong against the baht. Nothing happens in a vacuum, including dividend cuts.
Cheers.
I’ve been waiting for your March dividend report. What happened?
Michael,
I made a big announcement regarding my life and changing focus a while back. I think a number of people only stop by to read my financial reports, so they miss out on everything else.
Cheers.
I’m not one of those people who just reads the dividend reports. I read everything!
Mysticaltyger,
Awesome. Appreciate the readership. 🙂
Then I know you already have the answer to the question in regard to the dividend income reports.
Best regards.
It’s great to receive dividends and add that to the capital base you are working with. Having been on this journey for 6+ years I observed that at the low point in March I lost all positive gains in the portfolio and the unrealized loss was equal to the total dividends collected over the past six years. As you go longer and longer it will become more difficult to encounter such a situation.
I’ve learned over the years that when this happens it’s a huge indicator to be buying quality companies as you will be more than likely do very well in the medium to long term.
Of course, short term, all bets are off.
-Mike
Mike,
Right. The longer you go, the more difficult it’ll be to see your gains wiped out. That’s just the nature of time and compounding. I’m still a pretty young investor, relatively speaking, even though I’ve already kind of moved into a different phase of life.
It’s great not to rely on fickle stock prices for one’s lifestyle. This pandemic episode has made that more clear than ever before. Dividends aren’t 100% bulletproof, but they’re significantly more reliable than stock prices. And you definitely don’t get past dividends clawed back from you. 🙂
Thanks for sharing!
Best wishes.
The Freedom fund will hold up better than most other assets worldwide. How much Thai condo could you have bought in Jan 2020 versus Jan 2021? We’ll see. Jason, what are your thoughts on EM getting hit hardest but coming out on top?
Charles,
So far, so good. The Fund has held up pretty well, all considered. This is about as tough a test as you could think up, but the dividend income is almost completely intact. Hasn’t impacted my lifestyle at all. I’m extremely pleased.
As for your question, I’m afraid I can’t help you. Just not my area of expertise.
Best wishes.
Hey Jason,
I actually took the time to see which of your companies have cut its dividends, by the looks of it only 4.
EAT, DAL, PEB and CLDT, not bad…
I feel like SPG and SKT, EPR, KHC BP are next on the chopping block (depending on if they states open or not) and I also noticed RDS.B already cut its dividend in half.
With all that being said though, Literally the rest are all looking pretty good for now.
I wonder, would you buy or add to your position in any of these?
I own DAL, SPG and EPR my self and I bought heavy into these as Im still fairly young and can wait for these DAL to restart paying its dividend and SPG, EPR are reits just to good to toss up.
Thank you again for the though provoking article,
Saad
Saad,
Well, that’s really an individual call. I don’t sell stocks; however, I’m also not terribly keen to buy a stock after a dividend is cut. Always much to consider there, but it’s tough to be too excited to buy a dividend cutter when you’ve got deals left and right on other businesses that aren’t cutting dividends. There’s no moral hazard here. None of this is due to bad decisions or businesses being run poorly. It’s like a natural disaster that hit the whole world. Still, I’d obviously gravitate toward those that are weathering the storm better than others.
Just my thoughts! 🙂
Best regards.
Dear Jason,
First of all thank you for your continued sharing of information. I have been an on and off reader for some years now and quite enjoyed the mix of posts you offer to your readers. I have never commented so far.
Reason today was that I was quite disappointed, that you announced, that you wanted to stop updates to the FIRE Fund. I am under the impression, that this is one of the most crucial times for every dividend investor to learn and understand the flip side of a bull market. For years stocks have soared, dividends have increased.
Out of nowhere this pandemic has reshaped the landscape of businesses and thereby of stocks and dividend income. I am sure, that there are some very valuable insights on dividend security, portfolio stability and also one of your mantras to never sell in such times as currently.
As you point out correctly your views are free of cost so like any gift not to be taken for granted and not to be asked for. So please treat this as a request to extend a few chapters to the topic downturning markets and probably longer lasting bear markets and how to best brace as a dividend investor in such times.
Thanks in advance and my best
David
David,
I actually announced this change quite a while ago. Since you’ve been reading on and off, I’m guessing you missed that during one of your “off” periods.
I continue to update the portfolio itself. And I publicly announce stock trades. So the information is still there. I simply don’t spell it out in black and white any longer, as that was really part of a series of financial reports designed to show the mechanics behind achieving FIRE (which I’ve already achieved now).
I’m still incredibly busy with writing. And I’m working on a new video project with some friends, which is very exciting.
As for how to invest during these pandemic times, that’s pretty much all I’ve been talking about. Almost all of the content I’ve produced for the last eight weeks or so (including this very article you’re commenting on) has been referencing the ongoing situation. When people are asking me what to do, I can only assume that they’re not actually reading what I’m putting out.
Hope you enjoy all of the content that’s yet to come!
Cheers.
Hi Jason.
I had a few reits eliminate the divided but Im not concerned they were a small part of my portfolio. Having retired early back in 2004 and surviving the 08 – 09 financial crisis just fine Im not worried now either.
I have been able to add some new positions and increase some current holdings ( because I only take 80% of my div income ) in a few months of adding back in the remainder at the currently high yields I should be ” back to even ” or prior to the few dividend suspensions.
I added ADM and CAG to my fun fund glad to have bought them at a great price not the bottom but Im happy 🙂
As far as the pandemic goes, seems more hysteria than anything considering 50 – 60 million people just in the USA get sick from the regular flu every year and 35,000 – 80,000 die from it year after year never mind the 51,000 a year on avg that die from pneumonia in the USA and on and on. H1N1 is still floating around. People dont realize the plague is still around and 100s of thousands of people die every year from Chicken pox and Measles. Covid 19 will get added to the ” normal ” stuff that goes around probably take a year or two to normalize but it will.
Stay invested and buy good quality companies when they present themselves and life will be good 🙂
Bob,
Yeah, I’m right there with you on this virus situation. I think the hysteria (whipped up the mainstream media, no doubt) far exceeds the reality of the situation. I’m of the opinion that we’ve greatly, greatly overreacted to this. On the other hand, to be fair, we weren’t real sure what was going to happen. I suppose it’s better to err on the side of caution when you have something like this pop into view. Now that we have the data and some therapeutic ammo, however, I’m excited to see things open back up again and for life to carry on. If you’d rather stay home, stay home. But I’d like to see the rest of us have the freedom to be able to get back to living our lives.
All that said, it’s been an extraordinary opportunity for long-term investors. Being able to buy, say, Parker-Hannifin near $100 – that’s just not something you would have otherwise seen. Although I’ve already achieved FIRE and no longer see the need to personally invest heavily, I’m having a ball picking up some great stocks at really attractive valuations. 🙂
Thanks for dropping by!
Best wishes.
Hi Jason, enjoyed this article. Although I am not a dividend income investor, I am heavily invested in stocks that rely on capital gains. I hedge against any pullbacks by keeping at least three years of low risk bonds and cash at hand since the S&P has never gone significantly down two years in a row. When the markets go up, then I would sell some stock to replenish the three year cushion. Thanks, Martin
Martin,
Glad you enjoyed the article. I love sharing quality ideas with the community. 🙂
Cheers.
Not that I needed any more confirmation, but this crises has showed the benefits of dividend investing even more! Have been able to collect real cash flow through dividends and invest it back into great businesses at better prices:)
DA,
Absolutely. While I wish this pandemic (and especially the reaction to it by most governments) wouldn’t have ever happened, and while some temporary dividend suspensions are unfortunate, the opportunity to invest in world-class enterprises at depressed valuations has been most welcome. Meanwhile, all of the cash flow I’ve collected to date is still mine to keep, regardless. I’m a happy camper. 🙂
Have fun shopping over there!
Best regards.