One of the major reasons I’m a dividend growth investor (or even an investor at all, really) is so that I can grow my wealth and investment income, preferably at a rate that exceeds inflation.
This is especially a concern in the United States, as you have low-single-digit inflation that’s coming on top of an already large base.
Indeed, it’s not just inflation (a rate of change) that you have to be concerned about; it’s also the base upon which that rate of change is occurring that should be strongly considered.
Indeed, the latter may end up affecting aggregate costs (which is ultimately what really matters) more over the long run. Depends on the numbers.
I broke this down in my piece explaining why I no longer worry about inflation now that I’ve indefinitely relocated abroad to live out my early retirement dreams in Thailand.
But seeing as how I’ve been living here in Chiang Mai, Thailand for a year, I thought it’d be interesting to quicky revisit that piece and look at the real-life numbers to see if anything behind my thesis is amiss.
What I want to do is go through some of my major expenses and compare what they’re costing now to what they were costing me a year ago.
Before we dig in, I’m basically going to concentrate on what I’ve always called the “big three”: housing, food, and transportation.
I’ll talk about some ancillary budgetary concerns, but the bulk of one’s spending will almost always be allocated toward those three budget lines.
Let’s dig in…
Housing
This one’s easy.
Nothing has changed here.
I was paying 14,000 baht per month for my luxury, furnished, one-bedroom apartment in October 2017.
I’m still paying 14,000 baht per month (~$426/month based on the current exchange rate, which is right about the same in dollar terms as it was this time last year) in October 2018.
Since overall inflation as it’s seen at the personal level will likely be disproportionately impacted by any rises in housing costs (due to housing usually being one’s largest single expense per month), it’s already pretty much a huge win here. I can tell that right off the bat. The thesis is more or less intact.
Keep in mind, too, that my 14,000 baht includes the luxury apartment, furnishings, water, satellite TV, Wi-Fi, 24/7 gated security, fingerprint access, a pool, a gym, a sauna, and a perfect location in the city.
Since rent includes most utilities, that keeps inflation in those categories in check, too. No worries about, say, rising costs to access the Internet.
Food
Next to housing, most people spend most of their money on food.
Now, I’m not in any way trying to live cheaply when it comes to food, nor am I attempting to live cheaply in any other way across the board.
I’m living the lifestyle I’d like to live, regardless of money. It’s just that a value-conscious person living in one of the best-value cities in the world ends up spending relatively little money. That’s a natural byproduct of setting one’s life up correctly from a structural, holistic viewpoint.
In regard to food, I’m eating out for every single meal (which is twice per day, as I intermittently fast and eat only lunch and dinner). And I’m usually paying for two people: I voluntarily accommodate my significant other due to the large gap in our personal economies.
We tend to eat at a rotating stable of local markets and restaurants. While I’m not living cheaply, I do pay attention to price (in relation to value). So I’m very aware of what things actually cost.
Almost every single place we eat at is posting the same prices they were in October 2017. This practically hasn’t changed at all, as far as I’ve noticed.
There are two exceptions, though.
Two local Thai markets that we sometimes eat at have increased their prices. One just did so very recently. One did so at the start of 2018.
One increased prices from 35 baht per dish to 40 baht per dish. The other increased prices from 40 baht to 45 baht for a bowl of Khao Soi. Locals told me this was the first price increase in a long time for the latter place. So that’s something to keep in mind.
In dollar terms, in the case of the former, that’s going from $1.07 to $1.22 for a meal.
So that’s a 14% YOY increase, which is actually substantial in percentage terms. But in absolute terms, which is what matters more, it’s negligible because it’s coming off of such a low base. We’re talking pennies. And so my food budget hasn’t really been impacted all that much. Besides, we don’t eat at these two markets every day, for every meal.
The restaurants we frequent, which have higher prices (and thus would affect me more from the standpoint of inflation), are showing the same prices they were this time last year. Now, these are restaurants that we frequent. I can’t speak for every restaurant in the entire city.
Overall, we’re talking two places out of probably 50 or so we regularly patronize. So when you average it out like that (especially after accounting for unchanged numbers on the higher prices), the annual inflation here on food is probably less than 0.1%. And that’s on a very small base.
Meanwhile, the coffee shop I go to every day is posting up the same prices for the large iced caramel macchiato I drink every day: 70 baht (or about $2.13). So that’s awesome.
In fact, the coffee shop recently started up a sweet loyalty program. Buy 10 coffees, get one free. So the cost of coffee has actually gone down for me YOY on a per-serving basis.
I can’t share much on groceries because I basically don’t buy any. I only stock the apartment with water, the occasional snack, and a few cans of Coca-Cola. All of that is unchanged in price terms over the last year.
Transportation
This one’s a bit tougher to nail down because there are many ways to transport oneself around. If you own transportation (like a car or a motorbike), then you’re obviously exposed to all kinds of volatile input (repairs, the cost of gas, etc.).
Since I naturally prefer to walk as much as possible, my transportation costs are obviously very limited. Moreover, there’s very little variance because there’s almost no input.
That all said, I can say that there have been some changing market dynamics over here in Chiang Mai that have caused rising costs for me on my transportation.
Specifically, Uber exited all of Southeast Asia. That left the local competitor here, Grab, to grab (see what I did there?) that remaining market share and raise prices as a monopoly.
Whereas I was actually sometimes getting around town for free with Uber (after using generous promo codes), that’s a neat trick I haven’t been able to repeat with Grab (due to less generous promo codes).
However, it’s still very, very cheap to take a Grab car to a destination. For perspective on this, I just recently took a 6.5-kilometer trip with a Grab car. It ran me 59 baht (or $1.80). That’s less than the cost to use the bus in a lot of places in the US.
It’s difficult for me to nail this down enough to quantify it – I simply haven’t had any kind of regular or reliable transportation schedule to go back and compare notes on, nor did I ever pay much attention to the rates or anything between both platforms – but I would suspect that my transportation costs on an apples-to-apples basis have surely risen by at least 10% (with the change in promo codes driving much of this approximation). This isn’t inflation in the traditional sense; it’s rather a unique change in the local market, so it’s hard to classify this.
However, spending on transportation still comes down to lifestyle more than anything.
For reference, I spent just over $50 on transportation during my first month of living in Chiang Mai (because I was using cars more while familiarizing myself with my surroundings). But I spent $37 on transportation just last month since I’m more familiar with the city and now walk more. I suppose I’d have spent maybe $33 or something if Uber were still here.
Since this is the one budget category (of these three being discussed) that I spend the least on, its impact is pretty negligible on the overall inflation I experience at the personal level.
Furthermore, the longstanding local “public transportation system” that’s prevalent – red cars, or songthaews – still charges the same 30 baht per trip that they did last year. We take the songthaews when it makes sense.
Lastly, there’s actually been a development that potentially somewhat offsets the disadvantageous exit of a competitor in the ride-sharing space. That’s the recent introduction of a bus system in Chiang Mai. It costs 20 baht per person for the whole route. The bus system is the first leg of a more complex public transportation system that’s being scaled in CM, to be later supported by an already-approved light rail system.
Overall, I’m hesitant to say outright that transportation here across the board is more expensive on a YOY basis. It really depends on how you’re getting around. The building out of a more traditional public transportation network will make getting around Chiang Mai easier, faster, and cheaper than otherwise.
Others
Other costs are pretty much the same as they were when I first got here.
I currently spend 2,700 baht (or ~$82) for a three-month membership to my local gym. That’s the same as it was this time last year.
I currently spend 500 baht (or ~$15) on my mobile phone plan, which includes unlimited mobile access to the Internet (and even unlimited hotspot usage). That’s also the same as it was this time last year.
I also shave quite a bit, requiring the regular purchasing of razor blades and shaving supplies. The price of all of this remains unchanged YOY.
Conclusion
So my thesis is still pretty much intact here. I haven’t experienced much inflation at all after one year in Chiang Mai, especially in the categories that count the most (like housing).
Overall YOY inflation across my entire budget is well under 1%. It’s actually closer to 0% than anything else.
In my view, the big variable is really the lifestyle.
Lifestyle inflation is surely more of a danger for an expat than inflation at the economic, country-wide level (which is also mostly true for a non-expat living in their home country).
While my apartment costs the same as it did last year, it would be easy for me to move into a bigger, more expensive apartment and thus spend more on housing. Inflation might be at zero on an apples-to-apples basis, but my lifestyle would be causing a higher degree of spending. Fortunately, I’m very happy with where I live.
And while the currency exchange rate might seem to be an issue in the immediate sense (i.e., you might spend more or less USD for your baht in any given ATM withdrawal), this smooths out over the long run. Indeed, the exchange rate today looks pretty much the same as it did this time last year, even though it’s been slightly bumpy along the way. I don’t really concern myself with these daily/monthly gyrations much in the same way that I don’t concern myself with daily/monthly gyrations in the stock market.
It’ll be interesting to take another look at this in one more year to see if there are any changes, but I suspect it’ll once more come down to lifestyle (rather than an issue with broader economic inflation in Thailand or Chiang Mai).
What do you think? Was this interesting? What does inflation look like where you’re at?
Thanks for reading.
Image courtesy of: Sira Anamwong at FreeDigitalPhotos.net.
P.S. If living abroad interests you, which could allow you to sidestep most inflationary worries, check out some amazing resources that I personally used to become financially free at 33 and relocate abroad as an early retiree!
Glad to read that your (lifestyle) inflation is modest to none. That is exactly the way you want to see it! And as your (dividend) portfolio does increase with more than said inflation, you should be set for the next couple of years for sure!
CF,
Thanks!
The great thing about DGI is that the dividend growth is supposed to (and should) exceed inflation, eventually leading to a runaway snowball of growing wealth and passive income. I was assuming that would happen all along, but the move abroad really supercharged the math. The spread between dividend growth and inflation has become quite a chasm. 🙂
Cheers!
Hi Jason,
we are living in many countries with quite a low Inflation, which has a lot of advantages for dividend investors. As long as this continues it is easy to improve the financial situation, even if the saving is not that high.
I was interested how the overall inflation in Thailand is. So I found this site:
https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/320707/umfrage/inflationsrate-in-thailand/
I know, its German, but the table is international :). This confirms what you are experiencing and over the long time Thailand seems to be a stable country. When I look on the table I think the future will be quite similar if nothing unexpected will happen. On the other side you have the US-Dollar and income with this currency, so even an Baht inflation is not very dangerous, because the native currency normally get weak against the Dollar if the inflation will grow fast.
When I look at my overall growth of the dividends of 7% from this year (I think it is quite similar with your portfolio) you gained much more than the Inflation. Good Situation.
So your only danger is to increase your own Lifestyle expenses on spending much more than you earn. But I think you are far away from this.
Regards
Oliver
Oliver,
Right. The inflation rate at the country level is pretty low. And that’s coming off of an incredibly low base. It’s basically the perfect situation. 🙂
Lifestyle inflation isn’t a big concern for me, although I could obviously spend much more than I do (since I currently spend well under half of my income and invest more than a lot of people live off of here). The only thing that will probably inflate spending over the foreseeable future is travel. I’ve never been a travel bug (and I’m still not), but things in that department have opened up and become more interesting now that I’m living in such a diverse and dynamic region of the world.
Thanks for dropping by!
Best regards.
Hi Jason,
Is there any variability in prices between high and low season?
Br,
Aki
Aki,
Not that I can tell, but short-term lodging may be impacted by that. However, I think this would be more of a noticeable issue in areas with a larger tourism focus (like the islands and Bangkok).
Cheers.
Now I see the choice of Chiang Mai over the beautiful beaches all over Thailand. 😉 I have had just experience from Phuket area and there the prices rose in one year significately between 2008 and 2009 at my point of wiev😬
Aki,
I love living here, but inflation wasn’t a major concern for me when I was looking around. Takes a few minutes of research to understand the numbers. It’s not something I give much thought to; however, it was neat to do a YOY comparison – if just to have this as a resource for interested parties. 🙂
Can’t speak to Phuket (especially 10 years ago), but I do know that’s one of the most expensive areas in the entire country. So inflation would have more of an impact because it’s coming off of a higher base.
Cheers!
Conversely, a few years ago here in the US my one-bed apartment went from $950 to $1400 over the course of like two years (!). Fortunately, that was right about when we bought a house and were able to scoot around the rising costs.
We’re planning to FIRE in the US, and I think it will definitely involve moving to a region with a much lower COL and more stable housing costs. The boom has been a boon for us, but that won’t be necessary when we’re living off dividends.
Charles,
Ouch. Sorry to hear about the increase. Your experience is, unfortunately, one that many Americans can relate to. That, of course, makes DGI attractive from a fundamental standpoint of protecting against inflationary pressure. But that attractiveness increases dramatically when you change the dynamics via geo arb.
Good luck with executing domestic geo arb!
Best regards.
Thanks. I know you’re a big proponent of perpetual renting, and I’m at the point of trying to decide if that (or at least mid-term renting) is going to be a solution for us. I get significant life-satisfaction from owning property, but the equity in our house + the reduced taxes/ins/maintenance could support up to $2,000/mo of rental costs and still be break even, if we sold. We couldn’t stay here, but we could stay an awfully lot of cool places for that.
I suspect we may spend a few years renting around the beach states and the south before we find a place to buy something inexpensive for the long-term.
Jason,
Your inflation data is very interesting. It looks to me like geographic arbitrage is one of the largest “force multipliers” an early retiree can take advantage of.
Here in the US inflation is definitely going up, and its forcing the Fed to keep hiking rates. I’m concerned that they will invert the yield curve soon, if they haven’t already. Which historically indicates that the US will have a recession within the next year.
Fortunately, dividend growth investments are usually not impacted that much by recessions. It may even be a good buying opportunity for US equities.
There has been a large divergence between the US stock market and the rest of the world this year (particularly emerging markets). Maybe we will see the opposite in the next year or two.
jh,
Agreed. I’d say the move abroad was one of the seminal moments of my life. Right up there with the epiphany that led to the journey to FIRE, as well as achieving FIRE itself (while still in the US). The plane ticket over here was quantitatively the best investment I ever made.
We’ll see when the next recession hits. It’s gonna happen at some point. I’ll just continue to stick to the plan when it comes to pass. 🙂
Best regards!
Is 1 year enough to claim there is no inflation?
My rent hasn’t changed in the last 3 years. My cellphone bill is the same. And the Big Mac still costs the same as last year.
Is it safe to say there is no inflation in the US too?
Giblets,
You can see the long-term Thai inflation charts for yourself. One was posted earlier here in the comments section. I discussed numbers provided by The World Bank in my more comprehensive piece on long-term inflation in Thailand (that article is linked above). This was coming back around to that to see if the data (less than 1% annually) is ringing true.
US inflation is currently low, but it exists. Charles, earlier, noted his rent has increased substantially over a very short period of time. And I see that most of the desirable cities in the US have experienced pretty heavy housing increases over just the last few years. Inflation is usually felt most at the local level, although I believe lifestyle inflation is the bigger issue.
This was just revisiting my prior thesis on inflation being practically non-existent here. I was showing what it’s looked like at the personal level over the course of one year, since this is information that not many people are covering. As I noted, I’m aiming to take another look at this in another year. It’ll probably be a very similar result, although the low base almost makes the entire discussion moot (relative to what you’re looking at in the US). The low base practically guarantees low aggregate costs over the long run, so even much higher inflation wouldn’t be a big deal. Low inflation + low base = paradise.
Cheers.
That’s great! I’ve been waiting for an inflation report like this. That’s really good to know.
The inflation seems on par with US.
Now that you’ve been in Chiang Mai for a year, are you planning to stay long term?
Your life sounds pretty darn good.
Joe,
I’m happy to write the report and provide the perspective. I don’t think anyone else is out there doing something like this. I like blazing trails and doing different stuff. This is interesting to me in the same way that starting up DM in 2011 was interesting.
Yeah, life is amazing. It’s really great. I have no plans to leave anytime soon. I came here because I felt like I’d be happiest here. So far, so good. 🙂
Best wishes!
Nice to see that your costs are still about the same as last year. Though one thing I noticed is that I’ve got you beat in gym memberships. My LA Fitness membership comes in at $25/month and that’s only because I wanted the higher membership rate for the pool. Guess the US is cheaper in one area at least. Though you’ve got me beat in all the other categories.
Anonymous,
Totally agreed with you there. Gym memberships are not super cheap here. I think that’s a cultural and situational difference. Obesity isn’t prevalent here like in the US, so I don’t believe Thai people find as much value in a gym. You don’t need to go burn calories and stuff because you’re already leading a lifestyle that’s healthy. It’s really the better way to go. Gyms thus aren’t as common here, so the lack of saturation leads to higher prices. That said, nobody comes to Thailand for “cheap gym memberships”. Haha!
Cheers.
Good data points. Here in the Southeast US, we’ve had a similar experience the past 5 years of early retirement. A paid off home certainly helps insulate against housing inflation (and our house has doubled in value in real terms – something like 2% gains per year in real terms over 15 years).
Food seems flat to down thanks to new grocery store competition from Aldi and Lidl (right across from Superwalmart!).
Transportation is pretty flat as far as I can tell, though gas fluctuates a bit.
Restaurants seem to be creeping up very very slightly but we get 95% of meals from cooking at home.
The only real inflation I’ve seen is in utilities. Electricity and city water/sewer/trash being the 2 culprits. That’s only <5% of our overall budget so it's really not a big impact.
I guess there's one more inflation we feel – luxury consumption. Cruise prices keep going up due to the economy being really great right now. Fortunately our portfolio has more than matched the cruise price increases so we can still travel in relative style 🙂
Justin,
Yeah, we’re on the same page. I think inflation in the US and inflation here in Thailand are roughly the same (i.e., low-single-digit inflation). The big difference, obviously, is the base upon which that growth is occurring. An apples-to-apples lifestyle is about 1/3 the cost here. And so a 2% gain on $3,600/month is thus quite a bit more than a 2% gain on $1,200/month. And that has a major impact on aggregate costs over the long run, which is all that actually matters. I thought all of this was pretty basic, but I was getting a lot of comments a while back about inflation worries for retiring abroad. That’s why I started to share the numbers and discuss it.
Also agree big time on the lifestyle inflation. That’s what will really get people, especially if you’re not on top of the budgeting and fully cognizant of where all the money is going. It’s a slippery slope that’s easy to slide down.
Thanks for dropping by!
Best regards.
The dynamics of the Thai rental market are interesting. While land prices and commercial property rents continues to climb each year condo rental prices can be stagnant or even declining for decades, especially as new supply and projects come online as is the case today in both Bangkok and Chiang Mai.
This makes it ideal for the renter, not so much for the owner who is renting it out as fees and maintenance climbs each year along with the age of the building. The owners do make their money back after 15-20 years but it’s a far poorer investment than investing in a growing company that is sending greater dividends back with every passing year.
Food and services are subject to inflation, and this can go up quickly when there is a big bump in the minimum wages but this happens every few years with the last big move taking place in 2012. Like you said it’s happening on a low base so not too big of a deal.
Keep living the good life out there, Jason.
Cheers.
Mike
Mike,
I’ve noticed those same dynamics you’re speaking of after taking a look at some of the numbers over here. I certainly don’t need to be talked into renting, but it’s even more advantageous over here. It’s almost like this place was custom created for me. It’s a dream for renters. 🙂
Costs will surely rise over time. But it’s all about aggregate costs over the long run. And the low base means one has such a significant head start over here, it’s practically impossible to come out behind over the course of your life.
It’ll be fun to run the numbers again next year, but I suspect the only major potential pressure on spending will be lifestyle related.
Cheers!
Glad to see inflation isn’t getting out of hand. It makes sense – global prices can’t rise too much without a strong global economy, and where there’s a strong global economy, there’s usually strength in U.S. equities. And if there’s an inflation aberration where you are currently located, you can always relocate! To somewhere like… Greece. Take this blog, swap out Thailand for Greece, and you’ve got my own retirement plan in a nutshell.
HW,
It’s nice to see the thesis hold weight, but I was already pretty confident about it. The long-term charts don’t lie.
That said, I wouldn’t really be worried if inflation ticked up a few notches here. I come out way ahead on aggregate costs on this lifestyle anyway. And as you note, there’s a natural hedge in place (greater inflation = more growth = more dividend growth = increase in dividend income).
Greece seems interesting. Not a place for me, but it sounds like you’ve got it all scoped out! 🙂
Best regards.
Oh man, Greece is the most beautiful place I’ve been … from my own perspective at least. Areas like Santorini, which is the most gorgeous place on earth, can be quite expensive, but there’s a beautiful Greek city or village for every budget. Great food, scenery and people no matter where you are. Those interested in geographic arbitrage should give it a thought, although of course it won’t be for everyone.
Hi Jason,
Nice analysis.
This shows that Thailand is definitely one of the choices for one with FIRE plan.
WTK
WTK,
Thanks!
It’s tough to beat Thailand. If I thought a better choice existed, I would have went there instead. Of course, we all like different things and have different priorities, so it’s important to go/stay where it’s best for you.
Cheers!
Dear Jason,
Writing after a long time. Good to see that you are enjoying the move. I was wondering one aspect of your move. Although official exchange rates are what they are, in reality whenever we use visa or other card or even make transfers via banks (as probably you have to do to access dollars or whatever), one loses quite a bit in exchange. How do you deal with it (we are talking at least 5 %).
Cheers,
Rishi
Rishi,
Thanks so much. Loving life. I’m super fortunate! 🙂
While this isn’t related at all to the discussion at hand, I don’t pay those fees and I don’t lose anything on the exchange. I’ve addressed that before:
https://www.mrfreeat33.com/five-financial-products-and-services-that-are-necessary-for-the-dividend-expat/
Cheers!
Hey Jason. How do you deal with the Thai visa to stay/live in Thailan ?
Pete,
There are actually a ton of different visa options, depending on where you’re coming from, how long you want to stay, your interests, your financial means, etc.
Talking visa options for potential expats is a subject I’m happy to broach via the coaching:
https://www.mrfreeat33.com/coaching/
Cheers.