Basic income is a contentious – and common – subject these days.
The concept of robots taking over people’s jobs used to be something out of science fiction movies, but that’s not the case any longer.
Automation is real. It’s increasing and improving. And it seems increasingly likely that there will be far less jobs in the future, especially for people who lack the education, intelligence, or interest to participate in the new economy and workforce that will develop as a result.
And so you have a lot of people who believe that basic income is the only possible solution at this time.
Just ask Elon Musk.
Basic Income
Basic income is essentially unconditional money that’s provided to citizens by government. It’s like Social Security, except people receive the money while they’re young. In my opinion, it’s best thought of as much like Social Security: it’s designed to prevent mass poverty. (Social Security was originally designed to prevent mass poverty in old age; basic income is designed to do the same for all adults across the age spectrum.)
I wholeheartedly believe that basic income is inevitable.
Self-driving trucks are likely going to replace truck drivers at some point in the near future. After all, why employ truck drivers when a machine can operate 24/7? An army of automated trucks could draft each other on highways, saving on fuel.
Similarly, self-driving cars could potentially replace all of these Uber drivers. (You don’t think Uber is researching a self-driving big rig for no reason, do you?) And, of course, there’s the original Uber driver – the cab driver. Cab drivers aren’t just fighting ridesharing services but also automation.
Heck, I’m even concerned that writers like myself will one day be obsolete. Robots are starting to produce more and more content – and they’re obviously quite prolific.
So on and so forth. I see a future where far less jobs exist.
Now, there are going to be some jobs that are created out of all of this. But I can’t imagine it’ll be anywhere near a 1:1 ratio.
There are millions of truck drivers, for instance. But there won’t be a necessity for millions of people watching these automated trucks. Furthermore, many of these displaced workers won’t be qualified (or interested) to make that leap. Suddenly being an unemployed truck driver at 45 years old doesn’t mean you just leap right into robotics. That’s not how it works.
And so basic income is going to come at some point down the road. Governments will have to figure out how that works (and tests are already being launched all over the world), but I’m confident that the kinks will be worked out over time.
Of course, citizens in developed economies will be the best off in regard to the oncoming changes. Winning the ovarian lottery is the gift that keeps on giving, and I count my lucky stars every day.
Creating Your Own “Basic Income”
Now, this isn’t basic income by the strict definition of receiving unconditional money from a government.
However, I do look at the growing dividend income my Full-Time Fund generates as akin to basic income.
After all, the income is averaging close to $1,000 per month these days, which is on par with what a lot of basic income advocates are calling for.
And it’s unconditional in the sense that I don’t have to do anything to receive it. I simply continue to hold on to my ownership stakes in high-quality businesses that reward me as a shareholder with pieces of their growing profit pies. (Yum, I like pie.)
That’s right. It’s pretty much unconditional. I wake up and get paid. As long as I don’t die, I’m collecting that income. And I certainly don’t need to worry about getting fired.
Better yet, it’s growing much faster than inflation. The vast majority of the companies I’m invested in have been growing their dividends at a rate faster than inflation for years, or decades.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is my largest holding. It’s a $320 billion company (by market cap). You might think to yourself that their days of strong growth are long over. Nope! The company increased its dividend earlier this year – the 54th consecutive year it’s done so. And that increase was almost 7%. Take that, inflation!
I’m not sure how fast basic income will grow, if/when it’s rolled out broadly. But if Social Security is any gauge, I wouldn’t expect much year-over-year growth, unless inflation is high, which would render most of that growth moot anyway.
I created this basic income for myself over the course of approximately seven years.
I averaged a savings rate of well over 50% of my net income over that time frame.
When I thought I couldn’t save any more, I saved more. When I thought I couldn’t work any harder, I worked harder. When I thought about giving up, I marched forward even faster. I thought about every penny that left my pocket. If I didn’t find value in what I was spending my money on, what was the point?
And then I took all of that money I was saving and I invested it as regularly as possible into wonderful businesses that reward me as a shareholder with growing dividend income.
Think companies like The Coca-Cola Co. (KO), AT&T Inc. (T), and United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS).
I want to be behind products and/or services that are practically ubiquitous. Well, there’s not a day that goes by in which I don’t see someone consuming products and/or services from these companies I just listed. The same can more or less be said for all the products and/or services I have an economic interest in.
The odds are good that the ubiquitous nature of these companies’ products and/or services will continue on for years to come. In fact, automation could make their businesses far more profitable, allowing for even more “basic income” for their shareholders.
Finally, consider that everything I’ve read on basic income indicates that it would be unconditional. As one would expect, the government doesn’t want to punish people for continuing to work in an economy in which jobs will be more sparse but more specialized. As such, any basic income the government would be sending out to citizens could then be added to the “basic income” one’s able to build for themselves via high-quality dividend growth stocks.
However, it’s not something I stay up at night worrying about. Basic income or no basic income. It doesn’t really matter to me. I mean, I hope that we avoid mass poverty and starvation. I hope reason prevails. But for my own personal situation, I have no worries.
That’s because the dividend income the companies I’m invested in send me enough passive income to cover the bulk of my core personal expenses, rendering me financially independent. Regardless of whether or not basic income comes to pass in my lifetime, I’ve circumvented the whole process by going around it. It’s essentially a basic income hack.
Conclusion
Basic income is inevitable, in my opinion. However, I’m not sure when it will come. It could be in 10 years. Or maybe 50 years. I have no clue. The speed of its institution depends largely on the rate at which automation renders jobs obsolete. Based on what I’m seeing now, I suspect basic income will come sooner rather than later.
But this needn’t be a concern for people. If you stay ahead of the curve, save a lot of your money, and regularly invest in high-quality dividend growth stocks, you can create your own “basic income” long before the government finally figures out how to make the numbers work. If I have a choice of counting on the government or Johnson & Johnson, you can guess which way I’m going.
Furthermore, the passive income that these high-quality dividend growth stocks provide typically grows much faster than inflation, even decades into these companies’ life cycles. Growth doesn’t slow to a crawl simply because a company is 100 years old.
Lastly, I think building one’s own “basic income” via growing dividend income allows one to sleep soundly at night. Instead of worrying about the onslaught of automation and artificial intelligence and how the destruction of everyday jobs might leave me unemployed, I’m instead thinking about stuff like what time I want to hit the gym. Financial independence is just a wonderful lifestyle that allows one to pursue happiness with maximum chances of success, which is a much better use of time than worrying about automation and whether or not the government has my back.
What do you think? Are you creating your own “basic income”? Want more information on building your own basic income? Check out my coaching service.
Full disclosure: I’m long all aforementioned stocks.
Thanks for reading.
Image courtesy of: Sira Anamwong at FreeDigitalPhotos.net.
Jason,
I am creating my own “basic income” as well. Having passive income coming in definitely makes it to sleep easier. Averaging around $328 per month right now that I gladly welcome.
IP,
That’s the name of the game! 🙂
Cheers.
” If I didn’t find value in what I was spending my money on, what was the point?”
Testify, brother!
FV,
Amen! 🙂
Best regards.
Interesting article. As long as this doesn’t lead to socialism! History has proven how often that works (ZERO times). And I agree that automation will not be a 1:1 replacement for jobs. Giving people income though is much different than the journey you went through to generate your income. The virtues and behaviors and habits of hard work, restraint, creativity, self control, patience, passion, etc all are lost when things are given to you instead of earned. THIS will be a big problem if ‘basic income’ occurs. Thanks for sharing,
PID,
I’m not sure what you’d call it, or if a label would even be necessary. It would, nonetheless, be a lot different than what we’re working with today. Although, I’m not sure that would be a very bad thing at all, as the inequality just continues to grow.
It’ll be interesting to see how it goes. But I agree with Musk – it appears to be inevitable.
I will note, however, that I disagree with your general thesis on all of those qualities just being “lost”. Just like I continue to work and pursue passions (many of which pay), even though I’m essentially financially independent, so, too, will those who want to continue to work well past the point of BI. I wrote about this a while ago on the site. That’s why I believe much of the early retirement math is moot. The whole concept of early retirement is really quite different than a traditional retirement.
But I’d encourage reading up on BI. They actually did some studies on it back in the 70s(?) in Canada. Most people who were working continued to work. Most people who weren’t working kept right on not working. You’re either one way or you’re another. But I don’t see someone who’s used to a certain lifestyle just deciding to subsist on BI (unless they have no choice). BI is designed to be just enough money to not starve/be homeless. Those who want more will go out and get more. Others are just fine with a minimal existence (like many currently on welfare).
Thanks for dropping by!
Cheers.
Interesting points! I’ll definitely look into it.
I’m still concerned with those who never develop the qualities mentioned BECAUSE of BI though. For example, you had to hustle and work and go through the journey to get to where you wanted to be and as a result it made you who you are today. Now, you have a mature character and can give back to society, and not be destructive, etc. Perhaps there’s another less ambitious Jason out there who (if given a guaranteed $1k per month at a less mature stage in life…..which after reading your story I imagine you can relate to) would choose to be content as a beach bum IN THE BEGINNING, instead of going through the process that develops all of the desirable qualities mentioned. That seems to be my point. And definitely remember that these qualities are desirable to society in general, not just to the individual.
For those who currently have to work multiple jobs, get up early, work hard, etc that are only making slightly above the BI level currently, then, with BI, all of that discipline etc. will be lost to those people who now no longer have to work to maintain the same standard of living. Many don’t want to work, but they have to. They all suddenly go to the don’t want to work camp. But there’s value for them being in the working camp. Suddenly character stops being developed, many are idle, etc.
My last comment is that there’s a real problem when men (and women, but especially men) have nothing to do and no work. I saw this first hand in Afghanistan both times I was there, and trust me when I tell you that those with a positive stance on BI are not giving enough weight to the implications of ALLOWING no work. This may discredit my argument to you (though i really am not trying to argue, :), but there is a reason why the bible says those who don’t work, don’t eat.
Anyway, I hope you’ll consider the above…g2g,
PID,
I’d encourage you to read up on BI and the experiments I mentioned. They’ve already tested it out, bud. To think that someone who is used to a luxurious lifestyle is just going to find subsisting off of basic means as attractive seems silly. Some will go out and do what’s necessary to make more. Some will not. I think what you’re missing is that this is purely designed to prevent mass starvation/homelessness much in the same way Social Security was designed for. It’s just now across the age spectrum. Moreover, desire to work will have nothing to do with it for a lot of people. If you can’t find work, you can’t find work. That’s it.
Also, I’m pretty sure the Bible was written way before robots were invented.
Plus, this is way off-topic. This article wasn’t written to inspire a debate on the merits of BI. I was writing about how one can avoid these debates/concerns in the first place. I think you missed the entire point. But your level of concern just reinforces why the lifestyle I’m proposing is so attractive, so I guess you proved it out for me. 🙂
Cheers!
Great advice. I’m currently planning some more investing for 2017 to create a lot more dividends coming my way. They won’t be up to your status anytime soon but that’s the point of goals!
Stephen,
Hey, we all start somewhere. I was once sitting with a negative net worth and exactly $0 in passive income. It’s all just one step at a time. 🙂
Best of luck. Keep at it!
Cheers.
Interested in hearing more about this as it’s being talked about more this year.
If I recall I think proponents suggest cutting all or most existing welfare type programs and using that money to cover this. Do you know any more details of how we would pay for this if its different than that?
It seems like it’s similar to direct giving versus giving to a charity…interesting concept. I especially like that it might unlock creativity in people who are otherwise stuck toiling away at low wage jobs just to survive, which may bring about more innovation and technology to give us all better lives…something to keep an eye on for sure. That it’s even being discussed is pretty cool.
Sundeep,
“I especially like that it might unlock creativity in people who are otherwise stuck toiling away at low wage jobs just to survive, which may bring about more innovation and technology to give us all better lives…”
Couldn’t agree more with that. That’s also what I’m most excited about. I’m a good example of that, by the way. Instead of toiling away at the old dealership job, I’m using my own “basic income” to do amazing things like inspire people, help people become better versions of themselves, and do philanthropic work. I happen to strongly believe that the “work” I’m now doing is far more beneficial to the world than anything I was doing back in my old career. I’m free to be the real me, a better me. I think it’d be great if this were widespread. Sure, there’ll be some people that use it to just sit around and do nothing. Plenty of that going on right now. Humanity isn’t perfect.
As for the funding, it’s all up in the air right now. But my vision of it would replace all current entitlement programs. So you’d scrap SS, welfare, etc. It’d just be one monthly check going to every adult. And it would be flat. No incentives for having more children. Of course, there’s certainly a lot of waste in our national budget, so I think there’s a lot of wiggle room here. It’ll take some experimentation, though.
The good news for those of us creating our own “basic income” is that we don’t need to sit around and wait to see how it all plays out. 🙂
Thanks for dropping by!
Best regards.
Hi Jason,
Until recently I believed that advances in technology would lead to more automation and massive reduction in demand for labor, and that UBI was the only logical solution. Now I see it differently, after reading this article that I highly highly recommend:
http://www.vox.com/new-money/2016/10/24/13327014/productivity-paradox-innovation-growth
The rub is that demand for services that only humans can provide is unlimited. Ironically, you yourself are joining this trend with your coaching services.
Grant,
Yeah, I strongly disagree with the premise of that article. And I strongly disagree that demand for these services from humans is “unlimited”.
In fact, many of the examples they highlighted are rapidly changing.
Bank tellers are going away here as banks start to close branches and consolidate tellers into a more digital space. I imagine banks will one day just have maybe one or two people operating a very limited number of branches. Most people will be interacting with machines and doing their banking virtually. If they need help at a branch, they’ll be able to press a button and get specialized but remote help.
Restaurants are now moving to kiosks. I see this in my own city. There are some restaurants out on the West Coast that don’t have any human beings on the front end at all – they’re being totally automated. You can order remotely. Pay remotely. Ask for service remotely. There is just far less demand for front-end service. I could go on and on.
But if this weren’t the case, we wouldn’t be seeing basic income start to take shape across the world. I believe governments are seeing it as an inevitability, and so they’re doing what they can to test the waters now.
Of course, there will still be some jobs. It seems likely to me that human beings will always need to perform certain jobs. But I happen to believe, along with Musk and many others, that there will just be far less jobs in 20 or 30 or 40 years. If you think middle-aged truck drivers are just going to move into a service economy with “unlimited” demand for them, you obviously have not met many truck drivers. Sorry to say.
Nonetheless, the point of the article is that if one designs their life correctly, they can hack around this. They can build their own “basic income” that totally circumvents the drag-your-feet style of our government. Maybe automation kills most jobs (as I believe it will). Or maybe it doesn’t. Those who play their cards right shouldn’t/won’t really care on a personal level. 🙂
Best wishes!
I think it’s a really interesting debate. I can see both sides. Like you, I find it hard to believe that I would want to pay people for personal services all the time. But maybe you and I are in the minority. I think most people like providing and receiving personal services.
I get it, your typical truck driver isn’t going to reinvent himself as a physical therapist or a personal chef. But then again, I’m saying this to a guy who worked at a car dealer and reinvented himself as a blogger and an author and personal finance coach. And your message is that anyone can be like you if they set their mind to it, and I agree.
The data presented in that article is undeniable. The services sector is on a huge long term growth trend.
What if most people took your advice and lived frugally until they were financially independent, and then some. Most people would spend all their extra income on restaurants, spas, hair salons, nail salons, yoga classes.. people can’t get enough of this stuff. Or if they’re more frugal, they still spend on health care which is services.
I still think that taxing the rich and using the money for UBI is good economic policy. But “socialism” is such a bad word to so many people that it is hard to make this happen, and I think we’ll survive okay without it.
Grant,
Yeah, I still disagree with what you’re saying. I think we’ll have to agree to disagree.
“What if most people took your advice and lived frugally until they were financially independent, and then some. Most people would spend all their extra income on restaurants, spas, hair salons, nail salons, yoga classes.. people can’t get enough of this stuff. Or if they’re more frugal, they still spend on health care which is services.”
I’m not sure if you read my writing or have followed my expense reports, but this is the complete opposite of everything I write about and espouse. I personally spend very, very little money on services like this. And most of the people I interact with that follow this lifestyle operate in the same way. People who want to live frugally to retire early are going to spend their money on… nail salons? Surely you jest. And even if that’s the case, you don’t think that nail salons will one day be automated? If the money makes sense, robots will be doing nails.
Either way, this isn’t the point of the article. The point is that if one approaches life correctly, they can bypass this entire issue. Creating your own “basic income” means you can alleviate yourself of any concerns/worries about how the government will one day respond to the growing need to take care of citizens’ basic needs. Of course, if basic income does come around, that’ll likely be icing on an already delicious cake. If it doesn’t happen, you’re set. That’s a very appealing risk-reward scenario.
By the way, the guy who wants to transform himself into a “personal chef” will have to compete with Moley (and others like it sure to come):
http://www.moley.com/
Coming to a restaurant near you!
Cheers.
I kinda referred to my dividend income as a raise that I wasn’t receiving from my employer. Its up to $478. My plan is to get it above $500 in the beginning of the year, and then expand as much as I can during the year. It is so neat thinking of it as Basic Income!!! Thanks for yet another awesome article! You rock, Jason!
hh128,
I’m glad you enjoyed it. My pleasure to provide inspirational and thoughtful content. 🙂
I live this stuff. So I’m just blessed to have an outlet for it all.
Keep it up over there!
Best regards.
Any concern that if the gov’t waits too long to implement basic income, that the stocks you invest in will suffer due to people not having money to engage in their services? That could cause many of them to stop paying dividends I would think.
blahblah098,
I think that would infer that the government would wait until people can’t pay basic bills. I think we’d have large-scale riots on our hands before that day happens. I could be wrong, but I don’t see a destitute-like future. It would be silly as the resources are there.
Cheers!
Ha we are talking about the same people that have barely avoided government shut downs time and time again. So ya never know.
Interesting to think about, though. Happy new year sir
blahblah098,
Government shutdowns and what would amount to war-like conditions for millions are very different concepts. Not even in the same universe.
You have a very happy New Year, too!
Cheers.
For basic income to work, I think our government would have to make massive cuts to military spending and foreign adventurism. That means no more wars in the Middle East, no more giving money to Israel and their neighbors, no more getting involved with affairs overseas.
I just can’t see that happening in this country. Our politicians would sooner see our people destitute and our children dismembered in foreign battlefields than see us actually grow and prosper and become financially free.
Hell, these morons can’t even passa budget, can’t get tax rates down to a reasonable level (anything over 10% for those not earning six figures is criminal), and can’t even promise to pay out full Social Security benefits to our generation yet haven’t gotten through their thick skulls to allow and opt-out program for it.
Unless we are talking about Anthony Weiner sending pictures of his d*** to little girls, I have no faith in our politicians accomplishing anything of note. Our politicians would sooner advocate another ” jobs training program” to magically turn that hypothetical truck driver into Dr. Light from MegaMan. They are either that stupid, antagonistic, or both.
Sincerely,
ARB–Angry Retail Banker
ARB,
Right.
I didn’t write the article to debate the merits or possibilities of BI. Rather, one excellent benefit of building out your own “basic income” is that you can avoid these conversations in the first place.
That said, I don’t think there’d have to be many changes. Various organizations have done the math and proved it out (at $1k/month). You’d have to cut all current entitlement programs and redirect that into one program (BI). Military spending would have to come down from stupendous levels, and the government would have to stop spending money like an out-of-control 16-year-old girl. Seems reasonable.
Of course, the alternative is just to let the masses starve on the streets. That seems rather unreasonable.
Thanks for stopping by!
Best regards.
Hello Jason .
I couldn’t agree more.
I am not a dividend investor, instead I am index investing and using the Safe Withdrawal Rate (4%)
I just started investing seriously (I had 2000$ invested now up to 8500$) and I keep computing my SWR every day.
This is my basic income (will mix in some bonds later)
On the day job I am a software engineer , coding and developing stuff that probably takes some jobs from people.
In the evenings I am a student of Artificial Intelligence (and Machine Learning).
And in between ..index investor.
Why I started investing ? I am quite sure that given progress of technology and ML the future of income from labor is really bleak.
Would say 20 years but that might be too generous. Most jobs will be gone in 15 and the actual effects on society will be obvious in less than 10. Actually they are already ..but people are not in pain yet.
But what about the rest of the people ?? Some people are still in debt (I paid my last debt, the mortgage in 2016) and I hear that using credit cards for shopping is not that uncommon. What if you cut out their income ?
We definitely need Universal Basic Income and Universal Healthcare and hope humanity sees it before it’s too late.
Either way I plan to be able to retire in 10 years long before the 15-20 years deadline. Saving and investing to cover my expenses (and dropping those) has become my new religion.
Mihai,
I hear you. I very much share your concerns. But I’m comforted by the fact that regardless of how all of this goes down, those of us thinking ahead (by living below our means and replacing our income by intelligently investing our excess capital) should be okay. Being prudent and pragmatic has generally served me well, but society will probably have to think hard about the safety nets in place for people who aren’t so prudent and pragmatic. I’m a pretty optimistic fellow, so I think we’ll be fine over the long run, but there could be some turbulence while massive change is occurring.
Great job creating your own BI, though. Keep it up!! 🙂
Cheers.
Will be interesting Jason, and I don’t disagree with you. A safety net will have to be created given this oncoming economic reality. Interestingly, a $1,000 a month per US citizen adds up to $3.926 trillion at today’s US population of ~327 million. US Tax receipts last year were $3.33 trillion. One should count on Johnson and Johnson, indeed!
Jason,
Right. Count on the US government or count on the likes of Johnson & Johnson? I feel pretty comfortable with my choice. 🙂
That said, I don’t believe FIRE and basic income would be mutually exclusive. If basic income comes to pass, it’d jut be more income. But I wouldn’t count on it anytime soon.
Best regards!